Poll Numbers: What Do They Mean??
What is this lethargy and sense of defeat I am seeing and hearing from veteran Democrats and newly reformed Republicans? One woman this morning, upon seeing my Re-Defeat Bush button, remarked, “You know he’s gonna win, don’t you? I mean, I’m by no means a Republican, but he is going to win. Have you seen the polls? He was chosen to win many years before he even ran. You know that, don’t you?” Generally speaking, I usually block out the rest of the conversation after “he’s gonna win, don’t you know,” because it has been a growing and annoying theme. Where is this movement coming from?
My girl friend, Martha, and I discussed the influence polls have on the American viewing (or listening) public. I believe that polls are not useful in any public way, although they are important directly to the candidates to alert them on their outward position. In fact, they confuse the public. We are bombarded by too many signs, signals, advertisements and numbers. We need to focus on the numbers that count, like the 1,000 soldiers currently killed in military action in Iraq. You can go to MSNBC, FOX, NBC, CNN, The New York Times and various other media outlets to vote on which candidate you think will win this November’s election. How can they all be correct? Exactly. They're not. Yet, polls DO influence the public, especially when they are sent out by an admitted partisan media company, such as the right-wing conservative, Bush pushing Fox News Channel. The undecided voters see the polls as favoring one candidate over the other. It is known psychology that people enjoy picking winners. Very few people gravitate towards the underdog. These undecided voters suddenly take a new interest in the “perceived” winning candidate without much self-knowledge, reason and examination of the issues. To be blatantly honest, humans are lazy. If numbers are easier on the brain to take in than verbal communication about issues, people will chose numbers as long as they are elementary. And polls are just that…for the brainless and elementary. My fear is that Bush’s “bounce” is considered a sweeping victory for the election, when it is not.
CNN is covering the polls with more extensive review by educating viewers on what they mean. For instance, the current Public Poll is that Bush is winning by 52%, over Kerry’s 41%. However, the Electoral Polls (which, as any educated voter knows is more important) indicated that Bush is ahead by 1% at 48% to Kerry’s 47%. Both polls have a margin of error +/- 4%, meaning than neither candidate can call the election his. If you remember the 2000 election (unfortunately, I do), you will recall that the Al Gore won the popular vote by 500,000 votes in Florida, but ultimately the Electorate vote went (corruptly) to George Bush. I believe Poll discussions by either newspapers, magazine, TV, or cable, should be a matter of journalism ethics. We all know how wrong or incorrect media coverage can influence an election. Do you remember Fox’s pre-ejaculated announcement that Bush had won? Suddenly with Fox’s false news, all the other media companies jumped on the fabricated story…only to realize their blunder much later. If you need a refresher course, rewind your Tivo by 4 years, call your news station for video tapes or see the documentary “Outfoxed.”
Simply put, the announcements of these poll numbers have deflated one party and conjured up a false sense of hope for the Bush campaign. If a media outlet wants a real discussion of issues, they would not fall back to a wimpy coverage of the campaigns by meaningless polls, which in turn twist public opinion in a false and unintelligent way. I’ve had a big beef about American media for a very long time. We need reformation, but it will not come quick enough. Nor will it be done by this administration, which directly has alliances with CEO and top level executives of such media companies as The Wall Street Journal, PBS, and Fox. What can be done NOW is to summon your energy, galvanize our Democratic party, and keep steady…or as Bush would inexorably say, “keep our resolve.” - Johanna
My girl friend, Martha, and I discussed the influence polls have on the American viewing (or listening) public. I believe that polls are not useful in any public way, although they are important directly to the candidates to alert them on their outward position. In fact, they confuse the public. We are bombarded by too many signs, signals, advertisements and numbers. We need to focus on the numbers that count, like the 1,000 soldiers currently killed in military action in Iraq. You can go to MSNBC, FOX, NBC, CNN, The New York Times and various other media outlets to vote on which candidate you think will win this November’s election. How can they all be correct? Exactly. They're not. Yet, polls DO influence the public, especially when they are sent out by an admitted partisan media company, such as the right-wing conservative, Bush pushing Fox News Channel. The undecided voters see the polls as favoring one candidate over the other. It is known psychology that people enjoy picking winners. Very few people gravitate towards the underdog. These undecided voters suddenly take a new interest in the “perceived” winning candidate without much self-knowledge, reason and examination of the issues. To be blatantly honest, humans are lazy. If numbers are easier on the brain to take in than verbal communication about issues, people will chose numbers as long as they are elementary. And polls are just that…for the brainless and elementary. My fear is that Bush’s “bounce” is considered a sweeping victory for the election, when it is not.
CNN is covering the polls with more extensive review by educating viewers on what they mean. For instance, the current Public Poll is that Bush is winning by 52%, over Kerry’s 41%. However, the Electoral Polls (which, as any educated voter knows is more important) indicated that Bush is ahead by 1% at 48% to Kerry’s 47%. Both polls have a margin of error +/- 4%, meaning than neither candidate can call the election his. If you remember the 2000 election (unfortunately, I do), you will recall that the Al Gore won the popular vote by 500,000 votes in Florida, but ultimately the Electorate vote went (corruptly) to George Bush. I believe Poll discussions by either newspapers, magazine, TV, or cable, should be a matter of journalism ethics. We all know how wrong or incorrect media coverage can influence an election. Do you remember Fox’s pre-ejaculated announcement that Bush had won? Suddenly with Fox’s false news, all the other media companies jumped on the fabricated story…only to realize their blunder much later. If you need a refresher course, rewind your Tivo by 4 years, call your news station for video tapes or see the documentary “Outfoxed.”
Simply put, the announcements of these poll numbers have deflated one party and conjured up a false sense of hope for the Bush campaign. If a media outlet wants a real discussion of issues, they would not fall back to a wimpy coverage of the campaigns by meaningless polls, which in turn twist public opinion in a false and unintelligent way. I’ve had a big beef about American media for a very long time. We need reformation, but it will not come quick enough. Nor will it be done by this administration, which directly has alliances with CEO and top level executives of such media companies as The Wall Street Journal, PBS, and Fox. What can be done NOW is to summon your energy, galvanize our Democratic party, and keep steady…or as Bush would inexorably say, “keep our resolve.” - Johanna
posted by Only The Lonely @ 9:46 AM
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