Pulling the numbers for a more realistic picture...
There are lots of polls today. Even though, I don't normally endorse polls (read my "Polls: What Do They Mean?" blog on Sept. 9th), I will be a hypocrite today and reveal some of the numbers recently discovered by my boyfriend, an enduring research analyst fixated and infatuated with numbers. Please note that I still adamantly believe there should be a practical, more concise and accurate indicator of the true political scene...Thanks, James, for this investigation....Votemaster (a polling company from http://www.electoral-vote.com/) has posted seventeen polls on their site. Zogby Interactive (one of the non-partisan pollster companies usually represented by The Wall Street Journal) has released polls in 16 battleground states. Of these states, Zogby has Kerry ahead in 11 and Bush ahead in 5. Rounding the numbers to integers, James's result is 9 states for Kerry, 5 states for Bush, with Florida, and Arkansas tied, even though Kerry is fractionally ahead in both.
Meanwhile, Survey USA has a very surprising poll from Maryland, showing Bush and Kerry tied at 48% each. Up until now, Maryland has been strongly Democratic. It remains to be seen if this result is confirmed by other pollsters. The net effect is that Kerry has closed the gap in the Electoral College from a Bush lead of 116 yesterday to only 17 today, which is a net gain of 99 votes in the Electoral College.
How did this happen? Kerry picked up Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin for a net gain of 76 electoral votes; while Bush having lost 33 in Arkansas and Florida, Kerry lost 10 in Maryland. The other states polled didn't switch candidates. However, note that states with a white core on the map are essentially tossups, no matter what color the border is. -In Search of the Truth, Johanna
For the map and results, see:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
posted by Only The Lonely @ 2:06 PM
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